|
Post by quinn on Apr 14, 2024 21:16:00 GMT -6
Are we even going to be favored in R1? We are not. To win the series: Suns -115 Wolves -105 Odds per DraftKings Suns -120 Wolves -102 Odds per FanDuel
|
|
|
Post by kingsxman on Apr 15, 2024 5:19:36 GMT -6
Frustrating. Its Timberwolves. Imagine worst case scenario, and just plan for it. I think we win 2 games. The first and the 5th.
|
|
|
Post by Bonecrusher on Apr 15, 2024 7:25:06 GMT -6
They definitely figured out how to guard Ant and that led to the whole team becoming discombobulated. I’m sure everyone will be picking suns now and that may not be a bad thing for the Wolves. They have enough options to figure things out. I’d probably have KAT coming off the bench and go to more switching on D. Even if by some miracle we get past the Sun, they have shown teams how to beat us. Double and triple team Ant and he coughs up the ball constantly. It's more than infuriating especially since the Suns have done this three (I have a potty mouth)ing times in a row. IMHO Finch doesn't deserve COY. Try something different. It's the same Goddamned pattern. Suns cruise to a comfortable 20+ point lead in the first quarter and we are done. They play stifling defense on Ant and the ball handler. This is unconventional but I don't start Kat or even Conley. Starting lineup first game. NAW, ANT, NAZ, Garza, Gobert. (What we are doing hasn't work, time to try something new). Have NAW and ANT just run these (I have a potty mouth)ers all around the court. Spread it big time and open up the court to our advantage. Bring in Jaden, Kat, and JMac off the bench. I guarantee we continue the way we have we will be swept.
|
|
|
Post by Bonecrusher on Apr 15, 2024 7:45:02 GMT -6
Officiating was tough to overcome in the first half. Phoenix didn't miss many shots and the wolves had too many turnovers. Finch has a week to get it figured out. I'm sure Phoenix is pretty confident, time for the Wolves to sneak up on them. Officiating? Nurkic picked up 4 fouls in 15 minutes and we went the to line 31 times to their 18. Pretty sure we doubled them up in FTAs in the first half. I won't disagree with the above but it's not about Nurkic. It's Devin Booker clutching and grabbing, it's Durant and moving screens (they've perfected the moving screens from the GS years) and I saw a couple were called but it never ended. The other part of the officiating that is infuriating for the Phoenix series is they do KAT. What I mean is the go up for a shot, they do go up straight but they come down and "flop" backwards and the officials have been giving them calls. When KAT does it he will seldom get a call (driving to the lane). It's also the type of fouls that are called which is probably even more infuriating. Watching Phoenix drive to the lane and constantly go the free throw line while ANT couldn't buy a foul if he wanted to. It changes the complexion of the game and how it's played which is what gets the Wolves so discombobulated.
|
|
|
Post by XRaySpecs on Apr 15, 2024 10:31:35 GMT -6
Ugg. That was ugly.
Vibes are pretty awful right now and there's obviously truth there.
I think the defense can get figured out. PHX been an inconsistent team all year and I think we tweak the D to create windows where they're inconsistent.
I'd think about putting KAT on KD so that we can put Ant on Beal. Beal has cooked us these past 2 games. Conley is too small. I don't love KAT on KD, but we got shut Beal off or we're done. Also, I think Conley on Allen is better than KAT on him. We also need to do a better job boxing out for long rebounds. They're hard to prevent completely, but we've got to be more intentional about getting the ones we can so that we do stop them they don't get more looks.
The problem is offense. We have to figure out how to score. They've got a good scheme for Ant and no one else is helping relieve the pressure. The TOs are just so bad too. Ant, KAT, and Naz just can't stop turning it over.
We've gotten smoked in the 1st quarter so much recently including these last 2 vs. PHX. We've played them fairly evenly the other 6 quarters. If the Wolves start poorly in the 1st quarter, I'm not sure our confidence can take it. We need to come out much better.
In summery, change the matchups out of the gate to force stops early. Starting offense vs. their set D isn't great every possession. Limit TOs. Maybe we could force a few and get some transition for Ant to get him going early? And then we need to get others more involved.
|
|
|
Post by kingsxman on Apr 15, 2024 11:19:02 GMT -6
Conley is turning the ball over much more in the last month than he did the rest of the year. He needs to clean that up. That said, most of our turnovers are from guys trying to do too much and losing the ball in traffic while trying to dribble through it. The traffic comes from not spreading the defense out with made 3's. Or in KATs case...not enough attempted 3's. Ant needs to move off the ball as soon as the 2nd person comes to him. And then trust that it'll come back. He's given up on that since KAT got back. And potentially rightfully so: the odds that it will come back to him went down with KAT back. And thats not necessarily a shot at KAT...is just the fact that you're bringing in another scorer. To me....ball movement to good shots is the key. Until that happens...we will struggle.
|
|
|
Post by jojo on Apr 15, 2024 14:41:11 GMT -6
It was a pathetic showing but they can turn it around. Wolves played 11 games in 19 days to end the season and now get a chance to regroup and game plan for the suns. The fact that most will call this a toss-up or even favor the Suns might even take some pressure off. At the very least they’ll have a chip on their shoulder going in. But it’s really on Finch to figure this out. He’s been pretty good on adjustments all year but didn’t have time for much game-planning down the stretch. Let’s see what he comes up with.
|
|
|
Post by darko on Apr 15, 2024 15:40:58 GMT -6
I love it, you know if we had waltzed into the 1 seed and played GS or something, it's much less exciting. Suns are the perfect team to counter the narrative wars. Everyone loved that move for KD, and then they effectively doubled down with Beal. Wolves got killed for the Gobert trade. Suns have way more pressure on them that Wolves do, I would say them and Beantown basically are conference finals or bust here, and we figure out O, that makes things a hell of a lot easier on d.
I think Wolves can look at what other teams are doing to break d down here, how well they can do that remains to be seen, and it's a little disappointing we haven't seen them attempt to adapt in real time. That one OKC game still seems like the best example this season, where late game spacing and purpose looked like we were potentially finding something. The bad news is I don't really recall a lot of examples where we looked like we had to. It seems like there's this idea we can just drive on any d if we play the right way, but it's much more about what the defense is able to do or not. I had no idea Suns d could do what they've done two times in the last couple weeks. It's amazing how good they looked on that side of the ball.
Can we curb Book and Beal driving, and can we figure out O when teams do that to us. Remember it took us some time to figure out zone, and then once we did it made it hard for teams to do anything with. Switching, and shell was always a problem, even pre-Gobert when we were trying to initiate with D-Lo and Kat, and now with Ant and Kat. I feel like in games Kat plays well he's maintaining that spacing, but I do think what's equally noticeable when teams are limited driving lanes is there's no off ball movement, or anything else happening, so we kind of just swing it around without making the defense react all that much.
|
|
|
Post by jojo on Apr 15, 2024 19:06:08 GMT -6
I think it’s interesting that there really hasn’t been a media hubbub about the suns loss. Would have thought everyone would made a big deal about Wolves showing their colors yada yada. But some are still picking them in the series. Most are just saying it will be a tough matchup which of course. Anyway makes me wonder if Wolves fans are overreacting a bit. We pretty much knew the first round wasn’t going to be a cakewalk. Now if they beat the Suns I’ll almost feel like the season was a success since it’s a significant opponent. If they don’t they don’t but want to see them make the suns play great to beat them.
|
|
|
Post by tmirvin on Apr 15, 2024 19:44:25 GMT -6
If ant can't figure out when Phoenix is doing, then he just needs to not bring the ball up or get it at the top of the key. He needs to constantly be on the move to get the ball. Let Conley run the show. He'll find Rudy or kat for a 3.
When ants up top, they have 2 guys freet throw line extended waiting to collapse. He needs to take 1 or 2 dribbles towards the basket and instead of trying to knife through everyone, kick it out to the corner or a cutter (doubtful as nobody cuts). When your defender leaves you, you should be cutting to the basket. If ant makes an effort to get rid of the ball instead of dribbling through people (he doesn't get foul calls in those situations), it will help. Or just have Conley, Morris and jmac run the show. Ant will still get his.
Honestly, I think they make adjustments and beat Phoenix in 6. Playoff ant is different.
|
|
|
Post by darko on Apr 16, 2024 10:35:49 GMT -6
Turnovers, and not being able to generate clean three's is a result of bad o, too often we view as the flip.
OKC is the most similar to this Suns thing no? We need to similarity take away some of their driving. One of the things with Suns is some of their O still looks the same as far as sets for Book. Really operating out higher, and center of the floor more.
Worst place for Ant to catch the ball or slowly dribble into is the wing against a set d. That was part of our late game ones was it against OKC as well, or Boston, and then they really cleaned that up for that last one.
It's odd to me Wolves don't show more of that during the regular season, because ultimately the way to break different defensive schemes is similar to every team pending personnel. It's not like if we don't "show" it during the regular season, a team won't see what we're up to first half of a playoff game and adjust.
This would be cool to see Micah Nori break down some of what they are trying to do here.
|
|
|
Post by darko on Apr 16, 2024 10:53:05 GMT -6
One difference that seems true with Naz versus Kat is with Kat in, teams prioritize Ant, and Kat, when it's Naz and Ant, we saw teams prioritize keeping Rudy off the rim. Kat can shoot in the corner no doubt, but I still think that OKC thing was about keeping him high, if we're using him in that initial screen, and staying high off the initial drive for the swing back to as deep above the break as comfortable. Effectively Kat and Ant should be opposite each other whether opposite corner wing, wing elbow, or wing wing, and that can't be just walking into those spots at a stand still, there has to be some movement, have to make Suns turn their head, away from the ball, too often in this era the other guys on O are just standing around. This is a good piece by Rudy G. I think it's very much a cultural thing as far as how he's viewed. American's exclusively value iso scoring. That seems to be what we want basketball to be, but I also think about like Darko, and him going to that Pistons team. That would have been hard as an American dude, let alone coming over from another country at 19. I can't imagine that Pistons team was exactly welcoming. www.theplayerstribune.com/posts/rudy-gobert-nba-basketball-minnesota-timberwolves
|
|
|
Post by Nick K on Apr 19, 2024 14:30:12 GMT -6
If ant can't figure out when Phoenix is doing, then he just needs to not bring the ball up or get it at the top of the key. He needs to constantly be on the move to get the ball. Let Conley run the show. He'll find Rudy or kat for a 3. When ants up top, they have 2 guys freet throw line extended waiting to collapse. He needs to take 1 or 2 dribbles towards the basket and instead of trying to knife through everyone, kick it out to the corner or a cutter (doubtful as nobody cuts). When your defender leaves you, you should be cutting to the basket. If ant makes an effort to get rid of the ball instead of dribbling through people (he doesn't get foul calls in those situations), it will help. Or just have Conley, Morris and jmac run the show. Ant will still get his. Honestly, I think they make adjustments and beat Phoenix in 6. Playoff ant is different.Yep. No one gives us much of a chance. I like us in 6. We're a 1.5/2.0 point favorite Saturday.
Having plenty of time to scheme for PHX I think we make the adjustments. I like our staff. If we play at their tempo we are toast. We have to slow it down 1/2 court offense kind of play. And we have to punish them with our size. Sounds trite but we have to take care of the basketball. If we do that we can handle these guys.
Who do you put on Durant? McD? Can he stay out of foul trouble. We need him to have a great series. NAW and Reid too.
I just hope the refs let them play and call it the same for each team. It seems like a lot to ask.
|
|
|
Post by levine on Apr 19, 2024 14:40:21 GMT -6
Who do you put on Durant? I try KAT.
|
|
|
Post by kingsxman on Apr 19, 2024 14:50:04 GMT -6
We probably should get a new thread.
Finch wont do this but I'd actually consider this starting lineup: Conley Ant NAW McD Rudy
I think there is enough offense and it gives you a very good defensive team. Bring in KAT for 6th man offense against more of thier 2nd lineup. If KAT is having a good night, he can play more. I just think we need defense almost more than offense.
|
|
|
Post by Nick K on Apr 19, 2024 17:03:01 GMT -6
Who do you put on Durant? I try KAT. Good thought. Why not? Kat can guard him outside. Durant has never been fleet off the dribble.
|
|
|
Post by levine on Apr 19, 2024 17:13:24 GMT -6
Good thought. Why not? Kat can guard him outside. Durant has never been fleet off the dribble. Its the only thing that makes sense to me, provided KAT can stay under control. KAT has the length to at least bother Durant, and it would allow everyone else to stay home. If we can make Booker and Beal work to get theirs and stop leaving Allen all alone, we can survive Durant going off for 30.
|
|
|
Post by tmirvin on Apr 19, 2024 18:51:57 GMT -6
Good thought. Why not? Kat can guard him outside. Durant has never been fleet off the dribble. Its the only thing that makes sense to me, provided KAT can stay under control. KAT has the length to at least bother Durant, and it would allow everyone else to stay home. If we can make Booker and Beal work to get theirs and stop leaving Allen all alone, we can survive Durant going off for 30. I agree. Ant on Beal, mcd on book and kat on Durant. MCD on Durant when one of their big 3 is out. The wolves had far and away the best defensive in the league. It's time to put it to a test.
|
|