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Post by XRaySpecs on Aug 21, 2023 12:35:43 GMT -6
With the schedule out, should we start a sticky thread for the upcoming season?
Wolves have an easy schedule early in the year related to back to backs and rest, harder in the later part of the season. From a quick look at the teams we're playing though, it looks like we've got more of the "bad" teams later in the year. I'll admit that there are likely fewer really bad teams going into the year than other seasons, but Portland and Washington look to be teams most likely in tank mode later in the year and the Wolves don't play either until mid January. The Pistons and Rockets also have a ways to go and we don't play either until 24. Of the most likely non play in teams, we only have 1 game vs. Charlotte and 1 vs. San Antonio prior to 24.
Last season the Wolves played several bad teams before they knew they were bad. The Spurs and Jazz were much better early in the season and we played several games against them early.
Everyone is healthy to start the season. If the Wolves use their "rested" early schedule to their advantage vs. good teams, they could power through the less rested part of their schedule by (hopefully) beating teams more interested in draft position.
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Post by quinn on Aug 21, 2023 13:29:32 GMT -6
With the schedule out, should we start a sticky thread for the upcoming season? Wolves have an easy schedule early in the year related to back to backs and rest, harder in the later part of the season. From a quick look at the teams we're playing though, it looks like we've got more of the "bad" teams later in the year. I'll admit that there are likely fewer really bad teams going into the year than other seasons, but Portland and Washington look to be teams most likely in tank mode later in the year and the Wolves don't play either until mid January. The Pistons and Rockets also have a ways to go and we don't play either until 24. Of the most likely non play in teams, we only have 1 game vs. Charlotte and 1 vs. San Antonio prior to 24. Last season the Wolves played several bad teams before they knew they were bad. The Spurs and Jazz were much better early in the season and we played several games against them early. Everyone is healthy to start the season. If the Wolves use their "rested" early schedule to their advantage vs. good teams, they could power through the less rested part of their schedule by (hopefully) beating teams more interested in draft position. I think Ant playing for team USA is going to be so beneficial for us coming out of the gate. He's not going to be as rested, but he's going to be in game shape after literally dominating the world. He's playing for All-NBA so he can get that extra $50 mil. I think he's going to will us to be a Top 4 seed. Could Ant for MVP be a sneaky bet to make? He currently has the 13th highest odds to win MVP, above guys like Jimmy, LeBron, Kawhi, Kyrie, Jamal Murray, Harden, PG, and Jaylen Brown. Odds are +3300. I think barring health concerns, we are going to be a very good team. A full camp and a full season of Conley, Ant, Jaden, KAT, and Rudy is going to be so beneficial. We have real professionals I think this year and have steady hands manning the point guard position. A top 4 seed I think is not outside of the realm of possibility.
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Post by levine on Aug 21, 2023 14:17:29 GMT -6
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Post by kingsxman on Aug 21, 2023 17:05:12 GMT -6
With the schedule out, should we start a sticky thread for the upcoming season? Wolves have an easy schedule early in the year related to back to backs and rest, harder in the later part of the season. From a quick look at the teams we're playing though, it looks like we've got more of the "bad" teams later in the year. I'll admit that there are likely fewer really bad teams going into the year than other seasons, but Portland and Washington look to be teams most likely in tank mode later in the year and the Wolves don't play either until mid January. The Pistons and Rockets also have a ways to go and we don't play either until 24. Of the most likely non play in teams, we only have 1 game vs. Charlotte and 1 vs. San Antonio prior to 24. Last season the Wolves played several bad teams before they knew they were bad. The Spurs and Jazz were much better early in the season and we played several games against them early. Everyone is healthy to start the season. If the Wolves use their "rested" early schedule to their advantage vs. good teams, they could power through the less rested part of their schedule by (hopefully) beating teams more interested in draft position. Hmmm...how did this logic work for us last year? We need to treat each time like they are the Denver Nuggets. We havent earned the right to think of any team as easier than the others.
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Post by XRaySpecs on Aug 21, 2023 18:48:47 GMT -6
With the schedule out, should we start a sticky thread for the upcoming season? Wolves have an easy schedule early in the year related to back to backs and rest, harder in the later part of the season. From a quick look at the teams we're playing though, it looks like we've got more of the "bad" teams later in the year. I'll admit that there are likely fewer really bad teams going into the year than other seasons, but Portland and Washington look to be teams most likely in tank mode later in the year and the Wolves don't play either until mid January. The Pistons and Rockets also have a ways to go and we don't play either until 24. Of the most likely non play in teams, we only have 1 game vs. Charlotte and 1 vs. San Antonio prior to 24. Last season the Wolves played several bad teams before they knew they were bad. The Spurs and Jazz were much better early in the season and we played several games against them early. Everyone is healthy to start the season. If the Wolves use their "rested" early schedule to their advantage vs. good teams, they could power through the less rested part of their schedule by (hopefully) beating teams more interested in draft position. Hmmm...how did this logic work for us last year? We need to treat each time like they are the Denver Nuggets. We havent earned the right to think of any team as easier than the others. Of course we have to take every opponent seriously. The Wolves proved you can lose to anyone if you don't. If you take them seriously though, I'd rather play bad teams later in the season rather than earlier.
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Post by kingsxman on Aug 21, 2023 20:24:21 GMT -6
I'm just giving you shit. I know that WE all take every team seriously. I wish the team took every team as seriously as we do. Hopefully this year.....
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Post by darko on Aug 22, 2023 12:02:58 GMT -6
Last season the Wolves played several bad teams before they knew they were bad. The Spurs and Jazz were much better early in the season and we played several games against them early. Everyone is healthy to start the season. If the Wolves use their "rested" early schedule to their advantage vs. good teams, they could power through the less rested part of their schedule by (hopefully) beating teams more interested in draft position. There were several factors, but yes, these are the type of games they can/should clean-up. Having Conley to start the year, being healthy, a revamped offense that doesn't look completely lost late in games. And hopefully the result of last year is Wolves come out with a chip on their shoulder, as they should. I expect them to be in the mix for top four in the west this year, and we'll have a better idea of direction in terms of chips to move, etc.
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Post by levine on Aug 22, 2023 12:08:35 GMT -6
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Post by XRaySpecs on Aug 22, 2023 14:22:40 GMT -6
Jaden is certainly a lot of arms and legs. He really could take a big step forward as a 2 way guy. For me it's the stuff that's hard to show on Instagram that will be crucial. Can he better avoid fouling? Can he become a better rebounder.
I wonder if we'll see an extension at all before the season? Jaden may just want to play it out and see what happens. He's got a lot of upside.
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Post by darko on Aug 22, 2023 16:13:09 GMT -6
Jaden's d is enough, but if adds being able to initiate in a playoff game that's another player altogether.
I wonder if since he's 6-11 he grows into more of a four than three?
Could his handle get to the level of say Paul George?
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Post by kingsxman on Aug 22, 2023 18:00:27 GMT -6
Jaden is certainly a lot of arms and legs. He really could take a big step forward as a 2 way guy. For me it's the stuff that's hard to show on Instagram that will be crucial. Can he better avoid fouling? Can he become a better rebounder. I wonder if we'll see an extension at all before the season? Jaden may just want to play it out and see what happens. He's got a lot of upside. The worst move the Wolves could do is wait another year to sign him. That would be beyond stupid. Overpay him now if you need to but lock him up. Otherwise you risk seeing him walk next year for nothing. Thats something old regimes would have done. I dont expect Connelly to do that.
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Post by darko on Aug 22, 2023 18:08:53 GMT -6
It might be more Jaden at this point. Maybe he wants to see what he could get if he does take a leap offensively.
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Post by levine on Aug 22, 2023 18:12:28 GMT -6
It might be more Jaden at this point. Maybe he wants to see what he could get if he does take a leap offensively. Agreed. Jaden is this >< close to being a Max player. If he increases his volume/creation while maintaining his efficiency, he's right there.
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Post by Nick K on Aug 22, 2023 18:40:08 GMT -6
Jaden isn't there yet. But he's getting closer. It's a team game. He has to learn how to play without getting 5 fouls in 10 minutes. We can't pay everybody the max and he's so young he has to be patient. His day will come. Reid type money seems reasonable.
It's always who's selling who.
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Post by levine on Aug 22, 2023 19:12:14 GMT -6
He’s not getting Reid type money.
And we’d never offer that.
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Post by XRaySpecs on Aug 22, 2023 20:47:48 GMT -6
Jaden is certainly a lot of arms and legs. He really could take a big step forward as a 2 way guy. For me it's the stuff that's hard to show on Instagram that will be crucial. Can he better avoid fouling? Can he become a better rebounder. I wonder if we'll see an extension at all before the season? Jaden may just want to play it out and see what happens. He's got a lot of upside. The worst move the Wolves could do is wait another year to sign him. That would be beyond stupid. Overpay him now if you need to but lock him up. Otherwise you risk seeing him walk next year for nothing. Thats something old regimes would have done. I dont expect Connelly to do that. I would agree with the idea that Jaden is the one holding up the deal. He's thinking (guess) that he's close to being a max guy. Why sign for less now? If you're the Wolves why offer the max now? He's restricted next summer so we can match any deal anyway.
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Post by XRaySpecs on Aug 22, 2023 20:49:13 GMT -6
Jaden's d is enough, but if adds being able to initiate in a playoff game that's another player altogether. I wonder if since he's 6-11 he grows into more of a four than three? Could his handle get to the level of say Paul George? Jaden is very talented, but his rebounding is poor for a 4.
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Post by levine on Aug 22, 2023 21:08:21 GMT -6
I prefer Jaden as a big wing.
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Post by kingsxman on Aug 22, 2023 22:47:56 GMT -6
The worst move the Wolves could do is wait another year to sign him. That would be beyond stupid. Overpay him now if you need to but lock him up. Otherwise you risk seeing him walk next year for nothing. Thats something old regimes would have done. I dont expect Connelly to do that. I would agree with the idea that Jaden is the one holding up the deal. He's thinking (guess) that he's close to being a max guy. Why sign for less now? If you're the Wolves why offer the max now? He's restricted next summer so we can match any deal anyway. Ah...for some reason I was thinking he was an unrestricted free agent. Then I'm not as concerned...other than for the Wolves to not blow cap space.
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Post by Nick K on Aug 23, 2023 7:13:21 GMT -6
He’s not getting Reid type money. And we’d never offer that. He's not a max guy David.
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Post by tmill720 on Aug 23, 2023 7:39:01 GMT -6
He’s not getting Reid type money. And we’d never offer that. He's not a max guy David. "It will be interesting to see what the contract looks like once things are officially signed, and he’s locked up for the next half-decade. As good as McDaniels is and as high as his ceiling might be, he’s not a no-brainer max extended. He won’t be getting the five-year, up to $260 million deal that Edwards signed earlier this month. McDaniels is also looking at way more than the $42 million coming Reid’s way. But there’s a huge middle ground between the two deals that the Wolves and McDaniels could land on. With Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, and now Edwards on max deals, the Timberwolves will be in cap hell a year from now no matter how much they give McDaniels. Therefore, there’s a simple place to start when negotiating with one-half of the Smother Brothers. Negotiations should start at four years, $100 million for a player the Wolves think can win Defensive Player of the Year someday. $25 million a year would put his salary in line with other young rising stars John Collins and Anfernee Simons, and Draymond Green, one of the greatest defensive players of all-time." From Zone Coverage. Naz Reid money is ~$10 million per season too low for Jaden, even if his signed extension is ~$10 million less than the max.
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Post by cory on Aug 23, 2023 7:47:58 GMT -6
He’s not getting Reid type money. And we’d never offer that. He's not a max guy David. He's much closer to a max offer guy than he is to a Naz Reid level guy. You start with a Naz Reid level offer I would guess he's so insulted it damages the relationship to the point where he doesn't return. Cam Johnson is $27M a year. I would bet that is where negotiations start at if I'm the McDaniels camp and almost double what Naz is making. Jaden is a far more complete player, younger, and has dramatically more upside than Cam. The Mikal Bridges contract that gets cited very often is not a good benchmark anymore and was likely a bad deal for Bridges the second he signed it. There's a good chance that Jaden having made dramatically less as a low first rounder than others is going to drive a harder bargain than a lot of comps we have heard. I do find it funny the Cam Johnson deal rarely is cited as a comp when he just inked it 2 months ago. I bet McDaniels ends up at $28 or 29M a year when it wraps up.
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Post by levine on Aug 23, 2023 8:24:08 GMT -6
He’s not getting Reid type money. And we’d never offer that. He's not a max guy David. He’s not a 10M guy Nick.
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Post by jojo on Aug 23, 2023 12:50:44 GMT -6
That clip makes Jaden look like a legitimate wing. And there are precious few guys who can get away with that at his size. He could definitely develop into a max type guy so let’s lock him up. If that means moving on from KAT so be it. Not that I’m down on KAT but they’ve painted themselves into a corner salarywose.
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Post by XRaySpecs on Aug 23, 2023 13:11:34 GMT -6
He's not a max guy David. He's much closer to a max offer guy than he is to a Naz Reid level guy. You start with a Naz Reid level offer I would guess he's so insulted it damages the relationship to the point where he doesn't return. Cam Johnson is $27M a year. I would bet that is where negotiations start at if I'm the McDaniels camp and almost double what Naz is making. Jaden is a far more complete player, younger, and has dramatically more upside than Cam. The Mikal Bridges contract that gets cited very often is not a good benchmark anymore and was likely a bad deal for Bridges the second he signed it. There's a good chance that Jaden having made dramatically less as a low first rounder than others is going to drive a harder bargain than a lot of comps we have heard. I do find it funny the Cam Johnson deal rarely is cited as a comp when he just inked it 2 months ago. I bet McDaniels ends up at $28 or 29M a year when it wraps up. Johnson is a good discussion comparison. I don't disagree that Jaden has a more complete game, but that's based on his D which is a large margin better. Cam is a better rebounder and the better offensive player to this point. Johnson gets up twice as many 3s as Jaden and shoots it better. This drives a number like WS/48 significantly higher than Jaden. Jaden certainly has the tools to get their though. I'm not sure how much to price in upside either? Jaden surely has more upside, but he not there yet and there's no guarantee he gets there. What if the 3 pt shooting is a fluke and he's back in the lower 30s? What if he never can increase his volume? What if his efficiency craters when he pushes to score more? What if he never learns how to avoid fouling or improve as a rebounder? I would think negotiating upside has to go a little bit both ways. Basically anyone can say they'll get better after they get paid. Personally, I'd love to see him sign for the 5 years that you can do now without offering the max. I'd go up to 5/$140M ($28 a year).
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